HPCL 2.0: New Refining Capacity Starts

Research evidence excerpt

HPCL 2.0: New Refining Capacity Starts

Update

June 19, 2026 04:19 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte.+MHindustan Petroleum | Asia Pacific Mayank Maheshwari

Equity Analyst

HPCL 2.0: New Refining Mayank.Maheshwari@morganstanley.comMorgan Stanley India Company Private Limited+ +65 6834-6719

Pranitha Shetty

Research AssociateCapacity Starts Pranitha.Shetty@morganstanley.com +91 22 6118-3022

Hinal Choudhary

Hindustan Petroleum has started up its 180kbpd, US$8bn greenfield refinery cum Research Associate

petrochemical operations in the western state of Rajasthan, which took nearly 13 Hinal.Choudhary@morganstanley.com +91 22 6118-2044

years from inception to first crude intake. The company targets diesel and gasoline

sales within another week, with CDU already running. Globally, this is one of the few

new refineries to commence operations in 2026, as global systems remain stressed

even beyond the Middle East conflict (See Exhibit 1 and India Fuel Retailers: Energy

Security in Play). At full capacity, we expect the new refinery to add US$500-550mn Hindustan Petroleum (HPCL.NS, HPCL IS)

to group HPCL EBITDA over 2026-29e ( Exhibit 2 ), while net debt unwinds with India Oil & Gas | India

breakeven earnings on mid-cycle margins. We think HPCL along with RIL, followed Stock Rating Overweight

by IOCL and BPCL are key stocks to play: see Positioning Beyond the Shock. Industry View In-Line

Price target Rs511.00

Up/downside to price target (%) 27

Exhibit 1: New capacity additions net Exhibit 2: Hardware upgrades and full Shr price, close (Jun 18, 2026) Rs401.60

of closures keeping golden refining barrel economics should drive earnings 52-Week Range Rs508.45-316.20

Sh out, dil, curr (mn) 2,128

cycle tighter for longer growth in HPCL 2.0 Mkt cap, curr (mn) Rs854,534

US$Bn