Global Macro Commentary | North America: June 18: Fed Repricing Continues

Research evidence excerpt

Global Macro Commentary | North America: June 18: Fed Repricing Continues

UpdateM• Elsewhere in Asia, INR outperformed, strengthening 0.2% as oil prices

declined while equities saw foreign inflows for the third session. The RBI

announced after Asia market hours on Wednesday a temporary removal of

the interest rate ceiling on fresh 3-5y FCNR(B) deposits and NRE deposits for

3y or more. IGB outperformed alongside INR, with 10y yield falling 1bp ahead

of Friday’s INR320bn G-Sec auction. PHP weakened 0.3% and 10y RPGB yield

rose 5bp alongside the 25bp rate hike from BSP. USD/TWD remained largely

stable, aided by $1.2bn of foreign equity inflows while the CBC kept rates on

hold with two dissenters.

• In LatAm, Brazil rates led the move in the region, with the DI curve

steepening following the BCB decision and Jan-29 DIs moving ~28bp

higher. In Mexico, TIIE outperformed after 1Q26 GDP confirmed a slowdown

in growth in line with consensus, with the 10y TIIE rallying ~15bp. In FX, most

LatAm currencies underperformed, primarily driven by USD strength post

FOMC. BRL posted the largest losses and depreciating ~1.20%, while COP

outperformed and appreciated ~0.10% ahead of Sunday's presidential runoff,

which remains the dominant local theme.

• CEEMEA traded with a policy-heavy tone. The Czech central bank raised

rates by 25bp to 3.75%, and USD/CZK rose 0.6% as the broader dollar move

dominated the local hike. USD/HUF rose 0.8% and USD/PLN gained 0.6%,

while EUR/HUF and EUR/PLN also moved higher. South Africa was

comparatively more stable in FX, with USD/ZAR up 0.3%, helped by lower

oil and a better risk tone even as gold declined. Ukraine held rates at 15%,

while USD/UAH rose 0.2%.

Central Bank Monitor

Developed Markets

• Norges Bank June Rate Decision: 4.25% (C: 4.25%; P: 4.25%).