Philadelphia Manufacturing Activity Reinforces Momentum: U.S. Data Pulse | North America

Research evidence excerpt

Philadelphia Manufacturing Activity Reinforces Momentum: U.S. Data Pulse | North America

UpdateM

Philadelphia Manufacturing Activity Reinforces Momentum

Manufacturing activity was strong in June, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of

Philadelphia’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The headline general business

activity diffusion index rose 10.7 points to 10.3 in June, around the same as its 6-month

average of 10.8.

Demand and production showed strength. The shipments index grew 10 points to 14.9,

marking a seventh consecutive month of growth. Meanwhile, the new orders index

increased 29 points to 27.3, pointing to strong demand. We think the weakness in the May

new orders index was a moderation from a very strong April, the incoming June data

reinforce the continuous momentum in manufacturing demand.

Labor demand from manufacturers showed signs of improvement. The employment index

grew to 7.9 from -2.8, yet the average workweek index fell to -6.5 from 1.2.

Supply chain & inventories: delivery times shortened substantially. The delivery times

index moved up to -2.6 from -10.4, meaningfully lower than its averages of 5.4 and 1.2 in

1Q26 and 4Q25. Inventories decreased, with the index falling 15.1 points to -8.5.

Prices: prices paid accelerated whereas prices received decelerated. Both indices were

meaningfully higher than where they were two years ago. The price paid index increased

to 53.2, 5.3 points higher than in May, continuing to reflect pressure from higher energy

prices. The prices received index fell to 20.3 from 26.3, the second month of decreases in a

row, echoing our view that tariff passthrough is close to an end.

Overall, the manufacturing sector showed resilience and strength despite the higher

energy prices and the geopolitical uncertainty.