The Future is Digital

Research evidence excerpt

The Future is Digital

IdeaM$35 B as digital spending becomes less tied to traditional capex and opex

cycles and more driven by demonstrated value creation. Importantly,

accelerated AI adoption could drive the total addressable market to $50 B

annually in 2030, as AI-enabled workflows dramatically increase the volume

of interpretations, simulations, and automated operational decisions.

• Digital growth targets exceed expectations. Management introduced

robust financial targets, including 2025-30 revenue growth CAGR of 10-15%

which came in above current consensus of ~10% (prior MSe of 11.5%). By

2030, EBITDA is expected to reach $1.8-2.0 B (midpoint ~$1.9 B), ~17%

higher than Street expectations of $1.62 B (prior MSe of $1.85 B), with

EBITDA margins expanding from ~35% today to 38-42% (prior 2030 MSe of

39.3%). Importantly, the framework is primarily driven by organic growth

(led by Digital Operations and Platforms & Applications) with limited M&A

contribution, though the company will consider bolt-on technology that

strengthens its offering. While Digital accounted for ~10% of consolidated

EBITDA in 2025, we estimate that contribution could increase to ~15% by

2030 as revenue grows & margins expand faster than the Core businesses.

Management emphasized the software-like nature of the business,

highlighting recurring revenue opportunities, operating leverage, and

increasing monetization of AI-enabled workflows and Digital Operations.

• Competitive moat. Heading into the event, a key investor question centered

on the sustainability of SLB's competitive advantage in Digital. We came

away from the Investor Day with increased confidence in the durability of

that moat, which management described as being built on four mutually