Best of Times, Worst of Times: Not all tech is equal - The K-shaped reality for European Software and IT Services

Research evidence excerpt

Best of Times, Worst of Times: Not all tech is equal - The K-shaped reality for European Software and IT Services

17 June 2026

Global Software - European Technology / Software

Best of Times, Worst of Times: Not all tech is equal - The K-

shaped reality for European Software and IT Services

“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times”. The famous opening line of Charles Dickens’ Richard Nguyen

+33 1 42 13 54 22 ‘A Tale of Two Cities’ captures a period of contradiction: the French aristocracy indulging in

richard.nguyen@bernsteinsg.com opulence and privilege, the peasantry experiencing poverty and oppression. While 2026 is

thankfully not 18th century France, shifting class dynamics remain more topical than ever, from

Derric Marcon the US K-shaped economy to the squeezed Chinese middle class. In this note, we examine how

+33 1 58 98 06 30

derric.marcon@bernsteinsg.com the same divide now defines tech: markets expect a broad slowdown in key sectors such as

retail and CPG, but our CIO-backed framework shows budgets are being reprioritized - not

Mark L. Moerdler, Ph.D. cut - toward AI, efficiency and security. Our K-shaped scorecard identifies structural winners,

+1 917 344 8506 reinforcing our constructive stance on enterprise software and selective cloud-led services.

mark.moerdler@bernsteinsg.com

IT budgets are holding up, but reallocation is driving sharp dispersion. Even in

Firoz Valliji, CFA pressured sectors such as retail and CPG , CIOs are maintaining overall IT spend while +1 917 344 8316

firoz.valliji@bernsteinsg.com aggressively redirecting it toward automation, AI, analytics and cybersecurity. These priorities

are funded by cuts to on-premise infrastructure and low-ROI discretionary projects. The