Industry Digital Adoption Provides Strong Market Growth; SLB Screens as Primary Beneficiary, Potentially Delivering ~16% Digital EBITDA CAGR Through 2030

Research evidence excerpt

Industry Digital Adoption Provides Strong Market Growth; SLB Screens as Primary Beneficiary, Potentially Delivering ~16% Digital EBITDA CAGR Through 2030

Goldman Sachs Americas Energy Services

does drive the mix of SaaS higher and the mix of services/license lower, one would

typically expect higher gross margins to result. We have covered industrial software

companies undergoing GtM transition in a digitizing TAM before; See our initiation

reports on OCTV, PCOR for more. We think further datapoints that could prove helpful

for modeling the software side of the business would include revenue retention metrics

(GRR vs. NRR), customer breakdowns, billings, and the balance of growth across price,

cross-sell/up-sell, and customer growth. Finally, we think the single most effective

argument they could make would be to unify the datapoints on efficiencies they can

deliver across the lifecycle of the asset to the TAM they have outlined.

Point 3. Estimate Digital business enterprise value could be ~$13.0-18.0 bil

The most comparable peer group of companies with similar digital services currently

trade at an average EV/EBITDA multiple of ~11x on 2027 estimates. Based on our

estimate of 2027 EBITDA for SLB, applying a range of 10x-12x target EV/EBITDA

multiple, we estimate a value range of ~$13.0-16.0 bil for the digital segment. Based on

our estimate of 2028 EBITDA for SLB, applying a range of 9.5x-11.5x target EV/EBITDA

multiple, we estimate a value range of ~$15.0-18.0 bil for the digital segment. On a SOTP

basis, that would imply the rest of SLB’s more traditional oilfield services business is

trading at a multiple of 7.5x-8.5x EV/EBITDA on 2027.

Exhibit 1: Select industrial and/or vertical software companies EV/EBITDA

EV/EBITDA estimates based on FactSet consensus

EV/EBITDA