Oil Tracker:70% of Pre-War Hormuz Flows Might Become the New 100%

Research evidence excerpt

Oil Tracker:70% of Pre-War Hormuz Flows Might Become the New 100%

Commodities Research

17 June 2026 | 8:34PM EDT

Oil Tracker: 70% of Pre-War Hormuz Flows Might Become the New

100%

n Spot Brent futures prices slipped below $80/bbl this week as the US and Iran Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby

+1(646)446-3905 |

reached an interim deal that would lift the US blockade and reopen the Strait of yulia.grigsby@gs.com

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Hormuz right after the deal is signed, with the US and Iran reportedly signing the

Filippo Cuscito

Memorandum of Understanding Wednesday night electronically. +44(20)7051-9073 | filippo.cuscito@gs.com

Goldman Sachs International

o The interim deal reportedly includes a waiver for exports of Iranian oil and

Alexandra Paulus

petrochemicals and for related financial and transportation services, +1(212)902-7111 |

alexandra.paulus@gs.com

potentially unlocking over 50mb of Iranian oil on water overhang for Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

immediate delivery. Daan Struyven

+1(212)357-4172 |

daan.struyven@gs.com

o We now assume that Persian Gulf exports normalize to pre-war levels by Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

end of July and Persian Gulf crude production recover by October and see

risks to the Mideast supply outlook as two-sided, but skewed to the

downside on net.

o We estimate that this normalization in Gulf exports to pre-war levels might

be achieved with a 13mb/d increase in Hormuz flows from current levels to

around 70% of pre-war levels (Exhibit 3).

§ We estimate average visible Hormuz flows at 1.3mb/d over the 7

days, Gulf of Oman flows (which might be linked to “dark” Hormuz

crossings) at 1.6mb/d, and redirections via Yanbu, Fujairah, and

Ceyhan at 7.5mb/d.

o We do not see ship availability as a binding constraint on the recovery of