HVAC: Growth Likely a Focus for Both Firms; Taikisha Undervalued

Research evidence excerpt

HVAC: Growth Likely a Focus for Both Firms; Taikisha Undervalued

Idea

June 18, 2026 06:30 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+MConstruction | Japan Ryo Yagi

Equity Analyst

HVAC: Growth Likely a Focus Ryo.Yagi@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8938

for Both Firms; Taikisha

Undervalued Construction

Japan

We forecast sustained profit growth from F3/27 for both Industry View Attractive

Taikisha and Takasago, backed by favorable business conditions, What’s Changed

Takasago Thermal

but continue to focus on Taikisha for its more attractive P/E. Engineering (1969.T) From To

Price Target ¥4,800 ¥4,900

Key Takeaways Taikisha (1979.T) From To

Price Target ¥4,550 ¥5,500

HVAC business conditions are good. Middle East impact bears watching, but no

major impact yet, with demand firm, esp. for plants, data centers, redevelopment.

Amid ongoing tight supply/demand, order-stage margins can likely continue to

trend up, and if costs should rise, firms plan to pass these on.

The business environment is also favorable for paint, which Taikisha engages in.

Stock selection: With business conditions favorable, growth is likely to be a focus

for both Taikisha and Takasago, but we are OW on Taikisha (forecasting continued

double-digit profit growth in F3/27-28; F3/28e P/E looks attractive), and EW on

Takasago (strong earnings already priced in to some extent; short-term concerns

(mainly 1H) likely remain for a drop-out of F3/26's high-margin works).

We roll forward the base year for our price target calculations for both from F3/27

to F3/28, as we expect increasing market focus on medium-term earnings growth

amid favorable conditions. The large PT hike for Taikisha reflects both higher

earnings forecasts and the base year change. We raise our forecasts for Taikisha