India Economics – Macro Indicators Chartbook | Asia Pacific: Resilience Intact; Receding Risks

Research evidence excerpt

India Economics – Macro Indicators Chartbook | Asia Pacific: Resilience Intact; Receding Risks

Foundation

June 18, 2026 05:49 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley India Company Private LimitedMIndia Economics – Macro Indicators Chartbook Upasana Chachra

| Asia Pacific Chief India Economist

Upasana.Chachra@morganstanley.com +91 22 6118-2246

Bani Gambhir

EconomistResilience Intact; Receding Risks Bani.Gambhir@morganstanley.com +91 22 6118-3027

Shreya Singh

High-frequency indicators maintained strength in May, despite Economist

Shreya.Singh@morganstanley.com +91 22 6995-1521

unabated external uncertainty. Receding geopolitical risks augur

well for growth and macro stability. The RBI could bring forward

its rate hike cycle as we see upside risks to growth and inflation.

Growth: High-frequency growth data for May largely remained resilient, amid

continued supply disruptions & elevated commodity prices, indicating limited

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supply-side impact. Both manufacturing & services PMI edged higher, while bank

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credit growth stayed strong and power demand rose to a 24-month high. External

Flows – A Constructive Shifts (14 Jun 2026)

demand also remained robust with non-oil exports averaging 10.5%YoY in FYTD27.

India Economics: Supply Side-Driven Rise in CPI

Inflation: Headline CPI accelerated to 3.9% YoY in May vs. 3.5% in April, driven by (12 Jun 2026)

higher prices across the board, especially for food (4.5%) and fuel (1.9%), while the India Economics: GDP Growth for QE March

second order effect was limited, as evident in largely steady trends in core (3.9%) 2026 Exceeds Expectations (5 Jun 2026)

and core core (core ex jewelry) (2.3%) CPI. Headline WPI rose to an all-time high on India Economics: RBI Policy Review: Steady