Weak housing starts data: Our daily analytics package and commentary on global inflation markets.

Research evidence excerpt

Weak housing starts data: Our daily analytics package and commentary on global inflation markets.

FICC Research

Interest Rates

17 June 2026

Inflation-Linked Daily

Weak housing starts data

Our daily analytics package and commentary on global

inflation markets.

Jonathan Hill, CFA

+1 212 526 3497

US CPI: Housing starts fell 15.4% m/m in May; our economists note that their headline GDP

jonathan.hill@barclays.com

tracker fell by 0.1pp to 2.5% q/q saar. With the Iran deal soon to be formalized, our commodities BCI, US

analyst has maintained a $100/b forecast for Brent in 2026, while also noting that a gradual

Apostolos Apostoloueasing toward $80/b Brent by end-2027 is plausible. Real yields flattened on Tuesday: 2y +3.6bp,

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5y +0.1bp, 10y -1.7bp, and 30y -2.5bp (carry-adjusted). On a carry-/RBOB-adjusted basis,

apostolos.apostolou@barclays.com

breakevens sold off: 1y -4.8bp, 2y -3.1bp, 5y -2.8bp, 10y -2.1bp, and 30y -1.4bp. 1y1y sold off BCI, US

1.6bp and 2y3y sold off 2.9bp. The 5y TIPS reopening is on Thursday; we share our thoughts in

our auction preview. This week is the June FOMC meeting; our economists expect the

committee to keep rates unchanged and drop any reference to forward guidance in its

statement.

EUR HICPx and FRCPIx: The ECB's Lane noted on Tuesday that the central bank must be

prepared for inflation as a result of the Iran conflict, despite the recently announced agreement

(Bloomberg, June 16, 2026). Real yields flattened on Tuesday: 2y +3bp, 5y +2bp, 10y +0bp, and

30y -2bp. Breakevens fell up to 8bp in the front end, with 5y -4bp, 10y -2bp, and 30y -1bp. HICPx

swaps sold off: 1y -9bp, 2y -4bp, 5y -4bp, 10y -3bp, 30y -1bp. AFT announced last week that it

would tap the OATei32, OATei38 and OATei40 in the €1.25-1.50bn range.