European Metals & Mining Tracker | Europe: A Pause, Not a Peak

Research evidence excerpt

European Metals & Mining Tracker | Europe: A Pause, Not a Peak

Idea

June 18, 2026 03:00 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MEuropean Metals & Mining Tracker | Europe Alain Gabriel, CFA

Equity Analyst

A Pause, Not a Peak Alain.Gabriel@MorganStanley.comIoannis Masvoulas, CFA +44 20 7425-8959

Ioannis.Masvoulas@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-0427

A non-linear price path for EU HRC Adahna Ekoku

Exhibit 1: 3MMA YoY of European steel production + net imports (apparent Adahna.Ekoku@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-0578

Ferdinand Huber

demand), highlighting the inventory build since September 2025

Research Associate

Ferdinand.Huber@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-2702

9% RMB Morgan Stanley Proprietary Limited+

Brian Morgan

6% Brian.Morgan3@rmbmorganstanley.com +27 11 587-0803

5%

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

3%

2% Amy Gower (Amy Sergeant), CFA

1% Commodities Strategist

Amy.Gower1@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-6937

Ben Kelson

-1% Ben.Kelson@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-1392 -2% -2%

-2% -3%

-4% Mining 101

-4%

Mining & Steel Equities

Mining Sector Valuation Long Term Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 Apr-26 Steel Sector Valuation Long Term

Source: World Steel, Eurostat, Morgan Stanley Research Commodity Price Signals

Commodity Price Forecast

Pulling tonnes forward. European apparent steel demand has inflected

meaningfully over the past six months, but we see this less as evidence of stronger

underlying consumption and more as a policy-driven restock ahead of the 1 July

safeguard reset (see here). Imports have remained robust into policy

implementation, while real demand has not accelerated to the same extent,

suggesting that apparent demand has been inflated by inventory build across the

supply chain.