Midday Market Intelligence: transition

Research evidence excerpt

Midday Market Intelligence: transition

Equity Research

17 June 2026 | 12:54PM EDT

US stocks are edging higher on Wednesday, supported by a rebound in memory and Chris Hussey

+1(212)902-7564 |

semis, as well as other cyclical pockets of the market, ahead of the FOMC meeting chris.hussey@gs.com

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

this afternoon.

Sarah Herr

+1(212)357-0094 | sarah.herr@gs.com

reaching an angle of repose Kshitij Garg

After somewhat volatile sessions earlier this week, the market seems to have reached +1(212)934-7434Goldman Sachs India| kshitij.garg@gs.comSPL

a relative angle of repose, albeit with a somewhat pro-cyclical tilt. The focus today is

this afternoon’s FOMC meeting, the first under new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh. Following

the recent impressive pick-up in job growth, and some concerning signs around

inflation, we expect the FOMC to drop the previous forward guidance suggesting

cuts, but no changes to the Fed funds rate. We also think questions could come up in

the press conference about whether Chairman Warsh plans to act on his past

criticisms of the Fed on themes including communications practices, balance sheet

policy, and financial regulation (see David Mericle’s Jun-14 note, “June FOMC

Preview: Leadership Transition”).

On the data front today, May retail sales came in above expectations, driven by an

increase in gasoline spending. The strong data partially reflects the boost to

consumer cashflow from larger-than-usual tax refunds this year, and we continue to

expect spending growth to slow in 2026H2 as that boost fades. We raise our Q2 GDP

tracking estimate by 0.2pp to +2.6% (see “USA: Retail Sales Above Expectations;

Boosting Q2 GDP Tracking to +2.6%”). In an overnight note, “Spending Headwinds