Swedish Riksbank meeting: A leopard can‘t change its spots

Research evidence excerpt

Swedish Riksbank meeting: A leopard can‘t change its spots

Economics ● Sweden

17 June 2026

CPIF-XE came in at 1.2% y-o-y in May – still low (chart 3). Forward-looking inflation indicators such as business pricing plans in the

NIER and the Riksbank’s own surveys as well as producer prices point to a rebuilding of price pressures and these concerns were

reflected in the slightly steeper policy rate path compared to March. That said, signals are far from alarming: according to the

Riksbank survey, companies selling to households expect to only partially pass on costs - a far cry from 2022 – and long-term

inflation expectations remain well anchored (chart 5).

Our calls is still for a hold in 2026, followed by a gradual rate normalisation towards 2.25% during 2027. However, if a gradual

normalisation of energy markets following the US-Iran deal announced this week fails to materialise this summer, or the SEK

unexpectedly weakened significantly (e.g. if the ECB hiked several times), then the Riksbank will be forced into a more hawkish

stance and could guide towards a September hike at the August meeting already.

1. Rising purchasing power has supported 2. The labour market is stable with low

consumption recovery hiring and low firing

Source: Macrobond, SCB, HSBC Source: Macrobond, SPES, HSBC

3. Adjusting for taxes/subsidies, core 4. Firms intend to raise prices but

inflation would still be below 2% competition is a constraint

Services sector - drivers of selling price change

Balance Balance

50 50

40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0

-10 -10

2022 2023 2024 2025

Competitors Demand Domestic Cos

Import Other Net balance

Source: Macrobond, SCB, HSBC Source: NIER, HSBC. Note: Positive value implies majority of firms raised prices

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