Cuscal (CCL.AX): Sustainable, defensible and acquisitive growth; Initiate at Buy

Research evidence excerpt

Cuscal (CCL.AX): Sustainable, defensible and acquisitive growth; Initiate at Buy

Goldman Sachs Cuscal (CCL.AX)

Thesis in charts

Exhibit 1: We forecast FY30 Npat to be 2.4x FY25, driven Exhibit 2: ... with further upside if Cuscal performs at the

by organic growth, acquisitions and synergies... top-end of targeted guidance ranges

Npat bridge FY25-30E (A$m) FY30 Npat Scenarios (A$m) and FY26-30E Npat cagr (%)

FY29 Npat FY30 Npat 4-year Npat cagr (FY26-30)

24%

160 25%

140 20% 20% 20%

20%

16% 103

100 91 94 91 89 15% 84 80 79 84

80 75

60 10%

5%

0 0%

Bear Base Bull Guidance Gse Consensus

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Visible Alpha Consensus

Data

Exhibit 3: Transaction volume growth has exceeded value Exhibit 4: Transaction volume per capita growth is driven

over the last 10 years (less friction/more automation) by debit cards and NPP

10-year average growth 2016-2026 (%) Transactions per capita annualised (#)

12.0% 400 Cash

Value Volume Cheques

Debit cards

9.7%

10.0% Credit cards 9%

8.7% 8.6% Direct debits & credit transfers (incl. BPAY) 300

7.8% 7.9% NPP 8.0% 7.0%

6.0% 5.1% 5% 200

4.5%

4.0%

2.0%

0.0%

Issuing Payments Acquiring Total Cuscal guidance 0

(low/high) 2003 2007 2011 2015 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Source: Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), Australian Bureau of Statistics, Source: ABS, AusPayNet, BPAY, Colmar Brunton, Ipsos, Roy Morgan

Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Exhibit 5: Supporting Cuscal’s largest exposure and Exhibit 6: Growth from key clients (digital banks, Fintechs)

market leading position (ex-major banks) support above-industry volume growth for Cuscal

Cuscal’s market share FY24 (%) 3-year cagr CY23-26 across key metrics (%)

70%

NPP 16% 53% 60% 59%

50%

Batch 11% 46% 40% 37%