Progressive Corp. (PGR): First Take: Broad-Underwriting Outperformance Drives May Earnings Beat; PIF Growth Modestly

Research evidence excerpt

Progressive Corp. (PGR): First Take: Broad-Underwriting Outperformance Drives May Earnings Beat; PIF Growth Modestly

Equity Research

17 June 2026 | 9:29AM EDT

Progressive Corp. (PGR): First Take: Broad-Underwriting

Outperformance Drives May Earnings Beat; PIF Growth Modestly

PGR operating EPS of $2.18 beat GSe of $1.43, driven by a 7.5pp beat on the Robert Cox

+1(212)902-9813 | rob.cox@gs.com

reported combined ratio due to better than expected PYD (3.1% favorable vs. 0.4% Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

GSe), underlying loss ratio performance (63.1% vs. 66.5% GSe) and a 1.7pp beat on Jack Kendall

the impact from CATs during the month. The underlying loss ratio beat was +1(212)902-0331Goldman Sachs & Co.| jack.kendall@gs.comLLC

broad-based across segments, and included a 1pp beat in Personal Auto. Personal Victoria Gong

Auto PIF growth modestly accelerated during the quarter (134k additions vs. 125k in +1(212)902-7254victoria.gong@gs.com|

June and 111k GSe), while Personal Auto NPW growth slowed to 6% (vs. 7% in April Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

2026), missing our 8% estimate, as the YoY change in annualized NPW per Policy

slowed to -3.8% (vs. -3.4% April 2026). Notably, our 8% growth estimate considered

a potential 2pp+ growth tailwind related to timing, but PGR did not highlight any

impact in their commentary. Outside of Personal Auto, growth remained strong in

Commercial Lines at +6%, while Property growth improved to +3%. This represents

the 3rd consecutive month of mid-single digit plus NPW growth in the Commercial

Lines segment after a number of challenging growth months at the end of

2025/beginning of 2026. Additionally, the company continued to ramp up its

repurchase in the month, repurchasing $250mn shares (vs. $190mn/$160mn in

April/March).