Trends for Chems: June Polyethylene Price Increase Possible

Research evidence excerpt

Trends for Chems: June Polyethylene Price Increase Possible

Deutsche Bank

Research

North America Industry Date

Chemicals Trends for Chems 16 June 2026

June Polyethylene Price Increase Possible

David Begleiter

May polyethylene contract prices settle flat Research Analyst

US polyethylene (PE) contract prices settled flat in May. +1-212-250-5473

US producers announced PE price increases of 20 c/lb for May in response to the Emily Fusco

continued disruptions to energy and chemical production stemming from the Research Associate

conflict in the Middle East. This followed a record 30 c/lb increase in April (and a +1-212-250-5162

10 c/lb increase in March). However, with downward trends in spot domestic and

export prices starting in mid-April and continuing through May, PE contact prices

ultimately settled flat for May.

Looking ahead, producers have announced PE contract price increases of 10-20

c/lb for June. With Chinese producers working through their low-cost inventory,

supply tight, order books strong, US inventories at 5-year lows, prices below ’21-

’22 highs and US industry operating rates at ~95%, there is a case for

polyethylene prices moving higher in June. Despite this, we note that amongst

the major chemical consultancies, CMA forecasts a flat settlement in June while

ICIS/CDI forecasts a decline of 5 c/lb. Thereafter, CMA forecasts polyethylene

prices will fall 23 c/lb in 2H’26 (5 c/lb in August, 5 c/lb in September, 10 c/lb in

October and 3 c/lb in November).

The 17 c/lb net increase in ’26 since the start of the US-Iran military conflict in

forecast US polyethylene prices reflects the fact that once the conflict ends it is

expected to take 6-9 months for energy and chemical production and exports