Jun 2026 (Interim) Tokaido Shinkansen Passenger Volume: Firm Announces Private Compartment Pricing; Impact of Higher Prices Looks Smaller than We Have Envisaged

Research evidence excerpt

Jun 2026 (Interim) Tokaido Shinkansen Passenger Volume: Firm Announces Private Compartment Pricing; Impact of Higher Prices Looks Smaller than We Have Envisaged

Update

June 17, 2026 01:06 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+MCentral Japan Railway (9022) | Japan Takuya Osaka

Equity Analyst

Jun 2026 (Interim) Tokaido Takuya.Osaka@morganstanleymufg.comShan Jiang +81 3 6836-5438

Research Associate

Shan.Jiang@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-5430

Shinkansen Passenger Volume:

Firm Announces Private

Compartment Pricing; Impact of

Central Japan Railway (9022.T, 9022 JT)

Railways | Japan

Higher Prices Looks Smaller Stock Rating Underweight

Industry View In-Line

Price target ¥3,350than We Have Envisaged Shr price, close (Jun 17, 2026) ¥3,297

Mkt cap, curr, basic (bn) ¥3,149.2

Avg daily trading value (bn) ¥10.7

Key Takeaways

Tokaido shinkansen sectional transport volume data (up to Jun 16) released by JR

Central post-close on Jun 17 indicate Tokyo origin -4% YoY (Osaka origin -9%).

A simple calculation puts sectional volume between Jun 10 and 16 +1% for Tokyo

origin and -5% for Osaka origin.

It seems likely that special factors were mostly behind the magnitude of falls up

until June 9 – eg, typhoon effects (discouraging travel) and unfavorable calendar

layout (2 Saturdays/Sundays vs. 3 in 2025).

We attribute the fall for Osaka origin to dropping out of Expo effects (not a

surprise).

On Jun 17 JR Central also announced prices for private compartments on the

Tokaido shinkansen, but we think higher prices will have a modest impact on

earnings (likely to be less than our earnings forecasts assume).

Exhibit 1: YoY growth in Tokaido shinkansen sectional transport volume (%)

Osaka expo

25 Tokyo

the three-day gate 20

weekend effect

the three-day

10 weekend effect GW