F3/27 1Q Results: No Clear Positives to Drive Further Share Price Upside

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M

Idea

July 31, 2026 03:55 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+

Central Japan Railway (9022) | Japan

Takuya Osaka

Equity Analyst

F3/27 1Q Results: No Clear

Positives to Drive Further Share

Price Upside

Shan Jiang

Research Associate

What’s Changed

Central Japan Railway (9022.T)

From

To

Central Japan Railway (9022.T, 9022 JT)

Price Target

¥3,350

¥3,550

Railways | Japan

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

Unchanged

In-line

Modest revision higher

Impact to our thesis

Financial results versus consensus

Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

While there are no obvious negatives approaching, we think a

near-term correction is likely, as the good news has probably

played out with 1Q results and EV/EBITDA looks demanding,

taking the balance sheet into account.

Key Takeaways

JR Central reported F3/27 1Q OP of ¥219.1bn, within range of our ¥212.7bn

forecast, so we see no surprises.

The 1% YoY increase in 1Q transportation breakdown to -4% from Expo-related

demand dropping out, +2% from higher inbound demand, and +3% from

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Up/downside to price target (%)

Shr price, close (Jul 31, 2026)

Mkt cap, curr, basic (bn)

Div yld (03/27e) (%)

Underweight

In-Line

¥3,550

(11)

¥3,988

¥3,809.2

0.8

Fiscal Year Ending

03/26 03/27e 03/28e 03/29e

Revenue, net (¥bn)

Operating profit (¥bn)*

Recurring profit (¥bn)*

Net income (¥bn)*

EPS, basic (¥)*

Prior EPS, basic (¥)*

EPS (¥)**

Prior EPS (¥)**

P/E, basic*

P/BV, basic

ROE (%)*

EV/EBITDA, basic

2,006.2 2,031.0 2,091.0 2,134.0

830.2 768.0 805.5 819.9

780.9 712.4 746.3 756.8

552.9 489.7 513.4 520.8

570.2 514.0 542.1 551.7

- 499.4 525.3 531.9

570.8 514.0 542.1 551.7

- 499.4 525.3 531.9

7.2

7.8

7.4

7.2

0.8

0.7

0.6

12.0

9.7

9.3

8.7

5.6

5.5

5.2

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

* = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP

** = Based on consensus methodology

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

domestic demand (business, tourism, collaborations, etc).

Sectional transportation volume on the Tokaido Shinkasen: We think underlying

…