BMW (BMWG.DE): BMW materially lowers FY26 guidance on China weakness and Europe restructuring; capital return policy unchanged

Research evidence excerpt

BMW (BMWG.DE): BMW materially lowers FY26 guidance on China weakness and Europe restructuring; capital return policy unchanged

Equity Research

17 June 2026 | 6:22AM BST

BMW (BMWG.DE): BMW materially lowers FY26 guidance on China

weakness and Europe restructuring; capital return policy unchanged

What happened: BMW issued an ad-hoc release yesterday (16 June) materially Christian Frenes

+44(20)7051-8641 |

cutting its FY2026 outlook, including lowering the Auto EBIT margin by -300bps and christian.frenes@gs.com

Goldman Sachs International

Auto FCF by -€2bn (Exhibit 1), driven by an accelerating deterioration in

Monika Mengting Liu, CFA

China/Asia-Pacific, cost inflation related to the Middle East conflict, and a one-time +44(20)7051-7601 | monika.liu@gs.com

non-cash negative impact from efficiency measures in 2H26. Goldman Sachs International

Shivam Kotecha

The investor call that followed the release provided additional takeaways: +1(332)245-7822shivam.kotecha@gs.com|

Goldman Sachs India SPL

1. Management decomposed the 300bps EBIT cut as follows: Robert Triulzi

+44(20)7552-2281 |

robert.triulzi@gs.com

n c.200bps (two-thirds): market-related - China and Asia-Pacific (AP) Goldman Sachs International

competitive intensity weighing on both volume and pricing (Exhibit 4, Exhibit 5),

with increased cost inflation related to the Middle East conflict also cited. In our

previous sector analysis, we forecast at least an annualised -170bps EBIT margin

headwind from cost inflation for the European auto sector before mitigation,

starting to weigh on the P&L from 2H26/2027 (link). We are now seeing OEMs

comment on the P&L hit heading into 2Q as hedged contracts roll off.

n c.100bps (one-third): non-cash one-offs - a provision from structural and