South Africa Banks: Broadly resilient trends in April‘26

Research evidence excerpt

South Africa Banks: Broadly resilient trends in April‘26

Equity Research

17 June 2026 | 9:25AM GST

South Africa Banks: Broadly resilient trends in April’26

With this note, we review the latest BA900 data. We remain Buy rated on Absa, Kazim Andac

+971(4)214-9958 |

FirstRand, Capitec, and Neutral on Nedbank and Standard Bank. kazim.andac@gs.com

Goldman Sachs International

Ashwath P T, CFA

April sector loan/deposit growth +9%/+9% yoy +971(4)376-3439Goldman Sachs International| ashwath.pt@gs.com

We review the latest BA900 data for April 2026, which points to a modestly Gokul Vinayak L

constructive backdrop for South African banks, with sector loan and deposit growth +1(332)245-7976 | gokul.l@gs.com

Goldman Sachs India SPL

at c.+9%/+9% yoy. Sector loans shrunk sequentially, primarily driven by a mom

decrease in corporate lending for FSR, while peers exhibited flattish trends. Yoy

growth was at +9% yoy on improving retail growth (c.+5% yoy), while corporate

decelerated to +11% yoy. Deposits remained robust, driven by wholesale funding.

The Big-4 banks continue to dominate the system with c.84% market share in loans,

while Capitec retains leadership in unsecured lending. We remain Buy rated on Absa,

FirstRand and Capitec, and Neutral on Nedbank and Standard Bank.

Macro outlook

Despite a potential peace deal regarding the Middle East conflict, with South Africa

facing inflationary pressures from elevated oil prices, from a GDP growth

perspective, the pressure is partly offset by strong demand for PGMs, precious &

industrial metals, and other commodities. Our economists expect South Africa’s

inflation to come in at 4.2% in 2026 (vs. 3.2% in 2025), with real GDP growth of 1.6%

in 2026 (1.1% in 2025). Our macro economists expect two rate hikes (each 25bp) for