2026 CMD first take: Mixed financial outlook; Vicuña RIGI approved

Research evidence excerpt

2026 CMD first take: Mixed financial outlook; Vicuña RIGI approved

Update

June 17, 2026 06:22 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MLundin Mining Corp. | Europe Ioannis Masvoulas, CFA

Equity Analyst

2026 CMD first take: Mixed Ioannis.Masvoulas@morganstanley.comAlain Gabriel, CFA +44 20 7425-0427

Alain.Gabriel@MorganStanley.com +44 20 7425-8959

financial outlook; Vicuña RIGI Ferdinand Huber

Research Associate

Ferdinand.Huber@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-2702

approved Adahna Ekoku

Adahna.Ekoku@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-0578

Key Takeaways

Lundin Mining Corp. (LUMIN.ST, LUMI SS)

2026 EBITDA guidance weaker vs consensus/MSe, but adjusted FCF of US$1.2bn Metals & Mining | Sweden

broadly in line. Stock Rating Equal-weight

Industry View In-Line

Long-term (2026-2035) EBITDA guidance in line with consensus/above MSe, solid Price target SKr 260.00

FCF generation. Shr price, close (Jun 16, 2026) SKr 271.60

52-Week Range SKr 301.80- 93.85

Vicuña received Argentina RIGI PEELP approval; US$9.7bn capex covered (Stage 1 Mkt cap, curr (mn) US$24,933

Net debt (12/26e) (mn)* US$214

+ part of Stage 2) and FID remains on track by YE2026. EV, curr (mn)* US$28,441

Caserones +10-15ktpa cathode upside but tempered by lower sulphide grades; * = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP

Candelaria UG insourcing progressing well; Chapada Saúva targets trimmed.

2026 guidance - weaker EBITDA, broadly in line FCF: Lundin Mining guided to

2026 revenue of ~US$4.5bn, adjusted EBITDA of US$1.7bn and adjusted FCF from

operations of US$1.2bn (before working capital, growth capex and exploration &

development spending). The outlook is based on US$5.50/lb copper and US$4,000/

oz gold, an unchanged production outlook, slightly lower cash costs at Chapada at