House-hunting in June 2026: We seek to identify value in UK HA bonds during gilt market volatility and changing term behaviour, in the run up to a potential Labour leadership contest. The Labour government is likely to remain supportive to HAs but financials have not improved.

Research evidence excerpt

House-hunting in June 2026: We seek to identify value in UK HA bonds during gilt market volatility and changing term behaviour, in the run up to a potential Labour leadership contest. The Labour government is likely to remain supportive to HAs but financials have not improved.

Barclays | UK Housing Associations

The Sterling Other Financials index — which is around 85% HAs — is almost unchanged year-to-

date, trading around 95bp OAS to gilts. It remains one of the widest-trading sectors in the

market, with an 11bp pick-up over the £-IG index. The sector outperformed in the sell-off earlier

this year, but has since lagged the move tighter, with the differential now towards the wides of

the 12-month range ( Figure 3). Maturity differences account for much of the difference: the HA-

heavy sterling sector has an average maturity of 15.2 years, versus 8.5 years for the broader

£-IG index. In other words, HAs structurally sit much further out the curve than the average

sterling issuer.

At the same time, however, new issuance is shortening. As we previously flagged, in 2025, most

new HA bond issuance was with a maturity of 15 years or below, with only two bonds issued

with 25 year maturities, broadly mirroring the DMO’s own shift away from the long end. So, the

secondary HA curve remains long, but the incremental flow is becoming shorter. That

divergence matters when comparing HAs against gilts or against the broader sterling credit

curve: the stock remains long-duration and rate-sensitive, while the new-issue maturity profile

is gradually migrating inward. This trend is continuing with yet another sub 15y bond issued last

week, and this time as short as 9y.

FIGURE 3. HAs trading c. 10bp wide of the £-IG index

OAS, bp

300 15

250 5

-5

-10

-15

100 -20

-25

50 -30