LATAM Today: June 16, 2026

Research evidence excerpt

LATAM Today: June 16, 2026

Goldman Sachs LATAM Today

increase in private consumption, while the external sector (exports in particular) was a

meaningful drag and the 3.8% qoq sa decline in fixed investment came after a series of

firm readings. Following the Q1 data, we lowered our 2026 growth forecast by 0.2pp to

1.6%, broadly at the lower end of the 1.5% to 2.5% range anticipated by the central

bank in the March IPoM, and after another weak Imacec print for April (-1.2% yoy), we

see risks to our forecast as skewed to the downside. We expect the central bank to lower

their growth forecast in the June IPoM to at least a 1.25-2.0 range. Nevertheless, this

should imply only a mildly lower path of the non-mining output gap as an important

driver of the underperformance observed in the first quarter can be attributed to mining

and other primary sector activities (e.g., agriculture and fishing)

On inflation, despite the sharp increase in fuel prices observed in late March, inflation

data since the last IPoM, has been broadly consistent with the central bank’s projections.

As such, we do not anticipate a significant revision to the central bank’s outlook for

inflation in the June IPoM. That said, in the central scenario incorporated in its March

IPoM, BCCh projected oil prices (Brent-WTI average) to average US$86 per barrel in

2026 before declining to US$75 in 2027. These are somewhat above the most recent

US$82.5 and US$72.5 per barrel anticipated by the Goldman Sachs Commodities

Research team for 2026 and 2027 (also Brent-WTI average) and are also moderately

above market futures. While the central bank may point to some risks to food prices

from El Niño climate phenomenon later in the year, we would also expect the MPC to