OTP Bank Nyrt (OTPB.BU): Key takeaways from our fireside chat with OTP Group

Research evidence excerpt

OTP Bank Nyrt (OTPB.BU): Key takeaways from our fireside chat with OTP Group

Goldman Sachs OTP Bank Nyrt (OTPB.BU)

n Sector Taxation & Windfall Tax Outlook: Management emphasised that the

effective tax rate on the banking sector is around 50%, comprising a significant

burden from the banking tax and windfall tax. Management noted that the previous

government had doubled the windfall tax rate last year, and the firm belief is that the

trajectory from here can only go lower, although the pace remains uncertain.

Visibility is expected from the next budget and the three-year convergence plan due

in October. They do not expect the windfall tax to come in lower for this year, as the

government’s main focus currently is on the EU funds.

n Potential Interest Rate Caps Removal: Management welcomed the signaled

discontinuation of interest rate caps as a symbolic and rational move, reflecting

fairness in political decision-making. They note that the potential removal of interest

rate caps will not be a game changer but rather a positive signal from the new

government.

n Home Start Program: Management suggested it could be reasonable for the

government to reconsider the eligibility criteria; while the program is beneficial from

a client perspective, from a broader macro standpoint a change in lending criteria

would be rational.

n Cost/Income Outlook: Management noted that guidance for the year anticipated a

higher cost-to-income ratio than last year, although 1Q26 came in much better, but

mainly due to favourable 1Q fair value adjustments on revenue. They mentioned that

they will communicate during the 2Q26 call on possible revisions to guidance if any.

Recall that the management reiterated their FY2026 guidance on all lines with 1Q