Slash PT But Stay OW

Research evidence excerpt

Slash PT But Stay OW

IdeaM

PT/valuation: Based on the above, we slash our PT from ¥5,200 to ¥3,000 (implying 32%

upside from Jun 15 close of ¥2,271). We revise our target P/E from 19x (two standard

deviations below avg. P/E of domestic IP/content peers) to 12x (avg. P/E since 3Q results,

when concerns over sharp growth deceleration from F4/27 began to be fully priced in).

Guidance still looks conservative and while we lower our medium-term growth

assumptions, we continue to assume a 3-yr sales/OP CAGR of 10% through F4/29, and

thus stay OW.

What has not been priced in: The June 15 close (¥2,271) implies a P/E of 10x based on EPS

plan of ¥228, suggesting that the share price tracks EPS guidance. We believe the market

already recognizes the cautiousness of full-year guidance to some extent. However,

management has described 1Q guidance as realistic, implying limited prospects for an

upward revision at the 1Q results release in Sep. As such, in the near term, we think the

market is unlikely to price in guidance hikes during the fiscal term. From our perspective,

several potential catalysts could raise expectations for a guidance hike: (1) live events by

popular talents/units in October; (2) earnings contributions following the resumption of

activities by popular unit ROF-MAO (activities currently suspended; resumption timing yet

to be determined); (3) increased buzz from enhanced content involving music or new

VTubers; and (4) greater clarity on inventory valuation losses and impact from higher

crude oil prices. We look for share price upside in 2H this year.

Exhibit 1: Anycolor P/E (based on current FY consensus estimates) vs. 12x average P/

E since mid-March 2026

Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 Apr-26 May-26