Ice Cream Industry Retail Price Cartel Allegations

Research evidence excerpt

Ice Cream Industry Retail Price Cartel Allegations

Update

June 17, 2026 04:17 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+MFood | Japan Tomonobu Tsunoyama

Equity Analyst

Ice Cream Industry Retail Price Tomonobu.Tsunoyama@morganstanleymufg.comSeki Li +81 3 6836-8936

Research Associate

Seki.Li@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8934

Cartel Allegations Haruka Miyake

On June 16, the Japan Fair Trade Commission conducted on-site inspections of six Haruka.Miyake@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-5421

Jully Ussui

food manufacturers (Meiji Holdings, Morinaga Milk Industry, Lotte, Morinaga & Co. Research Associate

(not covered), Ezaki Glico, and Akagi Nyugyo) over suspected cartel activity Jully.Akina.Ussui.Nakao@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-5408

involving suggested retail prices for ice cream. Several companies have confirmed on

their websites that they were subject to on-site inspections. While the investigation

is reportedly still under way, we believe that if violations are confirmed, penalties

(anywhere from a few percent, to up to ~10% of sales) and public disclosure of

company names are highly plausible. Under the Antimonopoly Act, a surcharge of Food

~10% is stipulated in case of cartels. Japan

Industry View In-Line

FY25 ice cream sales disclosed in company materials are as follows: Meiji ¥52.1bn,

Morinaga Milk ¥47.9bn, Ezaki Glico ¥51.0bn, and Morinaga & Co. ¥53.5bn. A ~10%

penalty applied to one year of sales would thus imply penalties on the order of ~

¥5.0bn per company. If price increases over multiple years are deemed subject to

penalties, there is risk that the total amount could be significantly larger.

While the facts remain unclear at this stage, we would view confirmation of cartel

activity as an issue that cannot be ignored.