Just in the Knick of time

Research evidence excerpt

Just in the Knick of time

Accessible version

Consumer & Retail

Industry Overview

Food & Bev draw up schemes for 4th qtr balance sheets 15 June 2026

Last week was particularly volatile as a sentiment tug-of-war existed between software High Grade Credit

results & broader AI risk vs. supportive IPO activity and on Sunday, a diplomatic United States

breakthrough between the U.S. and Iran including an agreement to reopen the Strait of Retailing & Consumer

Hormuz this week. In U.S. macro, May CPI rose +4.2% y/y (led by oil), but encouragingly

Brian Callen, CFA

Food at Home CPI decelerated -20bps to +2.7% y/y driven by dairy & eggs deflation. We Research Analyst

think inflationary fruits & vegetables, packaging, and freight costs are more important BofAS +1 646 855 8987

looking forward and a headwind to Staples’ cost of goods. On the demand side, brian.callen@bofa.com

consumer spending remains robust (even despite gas prices) as BAC aggregated credit Avantika Pedamallu

and debit card data showed +5.1% y/y spend per household in May (see The Monthly ResearchBofAS Analyst

Checkout report for sub-sector detail across industries). Altogether, the ICE BofA IG +1 646 855 7557

Index stayed flat (+0.51% TR) w/w. Cyclicals (flat) slightly underperformed, returning avantika.pedamallu@bofa.com

+0.48%. Non-Cyclicals (-1bp) outperformed, returning +0.57%. New issuance was

$29.2bn for the week, in-line with estimate.

Exhibit 1: Markets w/e 06/12/26

In Food (-1bp), heightened attention was on Campbell’s (CPB) 3Q26 result and any Last week's market performance

prelude to FY27, including capital allocation, given stress on IG ratings and leverage Market Value WoW

creeping toward 4.5x. 3Q org. sales missed due to Meals & Bevs (tough soup lap), while IG ICE BofA Index 74 +0