May IP Data: Aluminum Production Maintained an Upward Trajectory

Research evidence excerpt

May IP Data: Aluminum Production Maintained an Upward Trajectory

Update

June 16, 2026 06:39 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+MChina Materials | Asia Pacific Rachel L Zhang

Equity Analyst

May IP Data: Aluminum Rachel.Zhang@morganstanley.comHannah Yang, CFA +852 2239-1520

Hannah.Yang1@morganstanley.com +852 2239-7079

Production Maintained an Chris Jiang

Chris.Jiang@morganstanley.com +852 3963-1593

Upward Trajectory Cynthia Tang

Research Associate

Cynthia.Tang@morganstanley.com +852 3963-4360

YoY production declined for crude steel, cement, coal and glass,

but grew for aluminum.

Property – New starts down 24.7% YoY in May (vs. -27.1% YoY in April). GFA sold

fell 14.1% YoY (vs. -10.3% YoY in April) and property completions were down 19.6%

YoY (vs. -19% YoY in April), all based on restated data for 2025. Our China property Greater China Materials

team expects a weaker 3Q. Secondary real-time home sales in high-tier cities started Asia Pacific

Industry View Attractive

weakening in mid-May, and have decelerated even faster in recent weeks. China Coal

Considering the still-fragile resident sentiment, diminishing policy effects/pent-up Asia Pacific

Industry View Cautious

demand, and reduced new saleable resources, the team estimates secondary home Greater China Cement

sales to turn negative y-y, and primary home sales to drop further y-y in 3Q, despite Asia Pacific

Industry View In-Line

the low base.

FAI was down 12.5% YoY in May 26 (vs. -9.4% YoY in April). Highway FAI slipped

13.8% YoY in May.

Crude steel output was -2.7% YoY in May (vs. -2.8% YoY in April). 5M26

production was down 3.9% YoY. We estimate domestic steel apparent consumption

was down 8.5% YoY in May (vs. +1.2% in April) on apparent inventory buildup, amid

a 2% slowdown in net exports.