June MPM Quick Comment (Before Deputy Governor’s Presser): Mentioned the Risk of Underlying Inflation Could Exceed the 2% Target.

Research evidence excerpt

June MPM Quick Comment (Before Deputy Governor’s Presser): Mentioned the Risk of Underlying Inflation Could Exceed the 2% Target.

Update

June 16, 2026 06:27 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.MBoJ Watch | Japan Takeshi Yamaguchi

Chief Japan Economist

June MPM Quick Comment Takeshi.Yamaguchi@morganstanleymufg.comMasayuki Inui +81 3 6836-5404

Economist

Masayuki.Inui@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-5407

(Before Deputy Governor’s

Presser): Mentioned the Risk of

Underlying Inflation Could

Exceed the 2% Target.

Key Takeaways

No surprise in the rate hike and the halt to the tapering of JGB purchases

The wording gives a hawkish impression: “a risk of underlying CPI inflation

deviating upward to a level above the price stability target of 2 percent.”

The deletion of the phrase that real interest rates are “significantly low” should

not be over-interpreted

A de-escalation of Middle East tensions could actually bring forward the timing

of the next rate hike

No surprise in the rate hike and the halt to the tapering of JGB purchases: The

Bank decided to raise the policy interest rate (the uncollateralized overnight call

rate) from around 0.75% to around 1.0%. Although Board Member Asada, who was

appointed under the Takaichi administration, dissented on the grounds that

“regarding the impact of the situation in the Middle East, downside risks to

production and employment were greater than upside risks to prices,” seven

members voted in favor of the rate hike, excluding Governor Ueda, who was absent

due to hospitalization. As for the plan for long-term JGB purchases, it was also

decided, broadly in line with our prior expectations, to maintain the monthly

purchase amount at around JPY 2 trillion from April 2027 onward (with only one