Chinese Internet Data Centre Sector: APAC Focus: at the cusp of demand inflection

Research evidence excerpt

Chinese Internet Data Centre Sector: APAC Focus: at the cusp of demand inflection

Chinese Internet Data Centre Sector UBS Research

more visibility - raising industry forecasts

Infrastructure well-prepared to unpin AI demand

We lift China data center industry forecasts due to strong downstream token

demand and domestic GPU ramp-up: We lift our forecasts for net adds in IT power

utilized by 4/25/22% to 4.0/5.8/6.7GW for 2026-28E, with total IT power utilized to

reach 31GW in 2028E. China’s AI capex cycle accelerated meaningfully starting 2H24,

driving faster data center utilization ramp-up. Momentum moderated in 2H25 (but

remained resilient) due to high-end compute supply constraints following the US export

restrictions. Looking ahead, we expect deployments to reaccelerate starting 2H26,

supported by robust AI demand and the ramp-up of domestic GPUs. We view 2026 as a

transition year, with full-year utilization net additions slightly better than 2025. In 2027,

as domestic GPU capacity scales, coupled with a well-prepared nationwide power and

telecom infrastructure, data center deployments should accelerate meaningfully.

Figure 2: We lift IDC industry utilization forecasts Figure 3: IT power utilized net adds held up despite US chip

restrictions

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Source: MIIT, UBS estimates, UBS Evidence Lab, includes content supplied by S&P Source: UBS Evidence Lab, includes content supplied by S&P Global; Copyright ©

Global; Copyright © S&P Global Market Intelligence 2026. All rights reserved. (> S&P Global Market Intelligence 2026. All rights reserved. (> Access Dataset)

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China's unique advantage in IDC rollout compared globally – infrastructure: