European Biopharmaceuticals The Long View: an under-appreciated autoimmune bazooka?

Research evidence excerpt

European Biopharmaceuticals The Long View: an under-appreciated autoimmune bazooka?

16 June 2026

European Biopharmaceuticals

The Long View: an under-appreciated autoimmune bazooka?

Justin Smith Ahead of the 1st launch by Merck & Co (M) in 2027, we now project risk adjusted & nominal

+44 20 7762 5899 2036e for the ‘game changing’ autoimmune anti-TL1A category of $20bn and $27bn

justin.smith@bernsteinsg.com respectively. These 2036e are 3x and 4x > consensus (Bloomberg) respectively. (Our ‘Blue

Sky’ for this disruptive category is $66bn in 2040e, in line with peak 1G PD1/PDL1 cancer

Shan Mian

+44 20 7676 8981 drugs (eg Keytruda)). To us consensus is under-appreciating unmet need and life cycle

shan.mian@bernsteinsg.com management (LCM) whilst overstating generic pricing headwinds & FDA uncertainty (we think

anti-TNF class (inc Humira) peak sales of $40bn de-risks the anti-TLA1 mechanism). Despite

Maximilian Brewster being 2nd in 2028, we expect Roche (O) to win in anti-TL1A due to LCM. +44 20 7550 2193

maximilian.brewster@bernsteinsg.com

Why is the anti-TL1A drug class underappreciated? We see two reasons why it’s a

Specialist Sales low risk proposition for peak revenues of this disruptive autoimmune drug class to exceed

the $40bn achieved by the anti-TNFs, which were led by Humira (‘pipeline in a product’

Christian Moore from AbbVie (MP; Breen) but now all off-patent 1/ the anti-TL1As and the anti-TNFs are +1 917 344 8555

christian.moore@bernsteinsg.com biologic siblings, but not twins. In our view this not only strongly validates the anti-TL1A

mechanism of action but also offers material scope for differentiated efficacy and safety

2/ we believe that modulating TL1A is a ‘game changer’ because of its unprecedented role