Post-F3/26 Results Follow-up: Upside Scope to Guidance, with Further Potential from M&A

Research evidence excerpt

Post-F3/26 Results Follow-up: Upside Scope to Guidance, with Further Potential from M&A

Update

June 16, 2026 04:55 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+MInsurance | Japan Atsuro Takemura

Equity Analyst

Post-F3/26 Results Follow-up: Atsuro.Takemura@morganstanleymufg.comMia Nagasaka +81 3 6836-5429

Mia.Nagasaka@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8406

Upside Scope to Guidance, with

Further Potential from M&A

We conducted follow-up interviews to F3/26 results and

Insurance

subsequent briefings. We feel there is upside potential to F3/27 Japan

Industry View Attractive

guidance in many cases, although not to the same extent as in

F3/26. With firms also indicating a proactive stance on M&A, we

see further upside potential if M&A succeeds.

Key Takeaways

We feel there is upside potential to F3/27 guidance for all names except Tokio

Marine HD.

Firms have made clear their stance on shareholder returns, but the timing of

share buybacks remains fluid for some names.

All firms are proactive on M&A except MS&AD Insurance Group HD, so we expect

continued conservative ESR management.

We interviewed each of our insurance coverage names post-F3/26 results. Please

see the following section where we summarize the key comments from each

company (including our interpretations).

P&C insurance stocks: While it appears Tokio Marine’s F3/27 guidance may be more

precise than usual, we see possible upside to guidance at Sompo HD with respect to

its domestic non-life business, and at MS&AD with respect to its natural disaster

assumptions. All companies have clearly outlined their shareholder returns policies,

and if returns were to exceed plans, we think this would likely yield upside.

Although we expect Tokio Marine and Sompo to continue conservative ESR