Earnings upside and catalysts improve investment confidence

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Earnings upside and catalysts improve investment confidence

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Otsuka HD (4578)

Earnings upside and catalysts improve

investment confidence

Reiterate Rating: BUY | PO: 13,600 JPY | Price: 10,200 JPY

12 June 2026

Raise price objective to ¥13,600; reiterate Buy Equity

We revise our earnings forecasts following the 1Q results. In addition to delayed generic

entry for Jynarque (ADPKD) in the US and Abilify Maintena (antipsychotic) in Europe, we

incorporate strong prescription trends for Voyxact (IgA nephropathy) into our revenue Key Changes

forecasts. We also add TSND‑201 (next‑generation neuroplasticity agent) and ARC‑02 (¥) Previous Current

(CD79b ADC) to our pipeline model. As a result, we increase our revenue forecasts for Price Obj. 12,400.00 13,600.00

the next five years by 2–3% and business profit by up to 13%. Accordingly, we raise our 2026E Rev (m) 2,514,900.0 2,593,500.0

price objective from ¥12,400 to ¥13,600 and reiterate our Buy rating. 2027E Rev (m) 2,574,200.0 2,631,900.0

2028E Rev (m) 2,673,600.0 2,719,000.0

FY12/26 BP forecast at ¥420.9bn, 19% above guidance 2026E EPS 591.14 589.25

We forecast FY12/26 business profit at ¥420.9bn (+19% vs. company guidance). The 2027E EPS 628.30 633.96

impact of Jynarque’s patent expiry remains limited, while strong uptake of Voyxact, 2028E EPS 714.89 741.49

growing royalty income, and conservative cost assumptions provide upside. The 2026E EBITDA (m) 569,133.0 567,833.0

company has indicated the possibility of an upward revision to full‑year guidance at the 2027E EBITDA (m) 595,033.0 588,633.0

2Q stage, and we expect increasing expectations heading into the 2Q results. 2028E EBITDA (m) 655,233.0 661,733.0

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