High Grade Energy Weekly

Research evidence excerpt

High Grade Energy Weekly

Ratings Agency Actions

S&P raises oil price forecast for 2026 and 2027, lowers

Henry Hub price outlook

On June 5, S&P raised its WTI and Brent crude oil price forecasts by $10/bbl for the

remainder of 2026 and by $5/bbl for 2027. For the rest of 2026, S&P expects WTI to

average $105/bbl and Brent of $110/bbl. The revision reflects more severe and

prolonged supply disruptions than previously anticipated, along with rapidly depleting

global oil inventories. For 2027, S&P expects WTI to average $75/bbl and Brent of

$80/bbl. Separately, the agency lowered its Henry Hub natural gas price forecast by

$0.25/mmbtu to $3.50/mmbtu for both 2026 and 2027. TTF price assumptions remain

unchanged, as the Middle East supply loss (3% of global gas and 20% of global LNG),

while significant, remains manageable. S&P highlighted the IEA’s upward revision of

crude oil supply losses in 2026 to 3.9 mmbbl/d from 1.5 mmbbl/d and assumes that

crude oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz will gradually resume from June. It also

noted that, despite increased US exports and demand curtailment measures from China,

global oil inventories are declining rapidly and, if this trend continues into the summer

demand season, inventories could fall into the IEA “red zone” (the level below which any

supply shock leads to heightened price volatility) by July/August. Under this strained

market balance scenario, S&P expects global oil demand to average ~104 mmbbl/d in

2026 versus supply of ~101 mmbbl/d, implying an average supply shortfall of 3 mmbbl/d

for the year.

Fitch upgraded FTI to BBB; outlook is stable

On Tuesday, Fitch upgraded TechnipFMC (FTI) to BBB from BBB- and provided a stable

outlook. The upgrade is driven by continued gross debt reduction, strong free cash flow