Tesla Inc. (TSLA): 2Q26 deliveries likely tracking ahead of consensus - raising our estimate

Research evidence excerpt

Tesla Inc. (TSLA): 2Q26 deliveries likely tracking ahead of consensus - raising our estimate

Goldman Sachs Tesla Inc. (TSLA)

Exhibit 1: Industry and registration data through May shows

strong yoy growth in Europe, China improving, though US

still remains weaker

100,000

90,000

May 80,000

through 70,00060,000

50,000

40,000

30,000 Sales/registrations 20,000

10,000

US China Europe

2Q25 2Q26

Source: CPCA, CNEVPost, Tesla Motors Club, Autodata

Consumer survey data mixed by region

We examined consumer survey data (from Morning Consult and HundredX) and net buzz

(defined as the number of respondents who read or saw something positive about the

brand less those that saw or heard something negative over the past two weeks from the

survey date) by geography.

Overall, scores are high and stable in China, but lower in the US and Europe. We believe it

will be important to monitor if metrics in Europe improve to help gauge the sustainability

of the recent growth in deliveries.

Exhibit 2: Tesla Net Buzz by region Exhibit 3: Net Purchase Consideration by region

Buzz Consideration

Net Purchase

Net

2021-06-07 2021-08-02 2021-09-27 2021-11-22 2022-01-17 2022-03-14 2022-05-09 2022-07-04 2022-08-29 2022-10-24 2022-12-19 2023-02-13 2023-04-10 2023-06-05 2023-07-31 2023-09-25 2023-11-20 2024-01-15 2024-03-11 2024-05-06 2024-07-01 2024-08-26 2024-10-21 2024-12-16 2025-02-10 2025-04-07 2025-06-02 2025-07-28 2025-09-22 2025-11-17 2026-01-12 2026-03-09 2026-05-04 2021-06-07 2021-08-02 2021-09-27 2021-11-22 2022-01-17 2022-03-14 2022-05-09 2022-07-04 2022-08-29 2022-10-24 2022-12-19 2023-02-13 2023-04-10 2023-06-05 2023-07-31 2023-09-25 2023-11-20 2024-01-15 2024-03-11 2024-05-06 2024-07-01 2024-08-26 2024-10-21 2024-12-16 2025-02-10 2025-04-07 2025-06-02 2025-07-28 2025-09-22 2025-11-17 2026-01-12…