European Equity Strategy: The end of token-maxxing

Research evidence excerpt

European Equity Strategy: The end of token-maxxing

The end of token-maxxing

AI capex has been the dominant driver of equity market performance: AI capex beneficiaries have been the

defining trade in equity markets over recent months, with performance increasingly concentrated in sectors and

geographies most exposed to the AI infrastructure buildout. In Europe, aside from oil & gas, the strongest performers

have been basic resources, technology and telecoms – sectors with direct or indirect exposure to the expansion of AI-

related physical and digital infrastructure. A similar, though even more pronounced, pattern is evident in the US. Without

the semiconductor and technology hardware sectors – which represent less than 30% of the S&P 500 – US equity

returns would be negative. Globally, leadership has been equally narrow, with equity indices in Korea and Taiwan

outperforming significantly, reflecting their deep integration into global semiconductor supply chains and AI hardware

production. However, the pull-back that began in the middle of last week has been notable, with declines across key AI-

linked segments, including US semiconductors and Asian markets such as the Kospi. The benign interpretation is that,

following an extended period of strong gains, a correction was both likely and is, in some respects, constructive. Periods

of consolidation can help prevent prices from becoming excessively detached from underlying fundamentals, thereby

reducing the risk of more severe dislocations later. The timing of the move also lends some support to this view. The

sell-off began shortly after Broadcom reported results that, while still strong in absolute terms (see: Broadcom Inc., Jun

4), disappointed elevated market expectations.