SCA (SCAb.ST): Updating estimates ahead of 2Q26

Research evidence excerpt

SCA (SCAb.ST): Updating estimates ahead of 2Q26

Equity Research

15 June 2026 | 8:36PM BST

We update our estimates for SCA ahead of its 2Q26 results (July 22), also reflecting Gabriel Simoes

+44(20)7051-6922 |

latest FX trends and marking-to-market commodity prices. We decrease our 2Q26 gabriel.simoes@gs.com

Goldman Sachs International

Adj. EBITDA estimate by c.4% (to SEK 1,292bn) led mainly by a less-constructive

Georgina Fraser, Ph.D.

increase for prices in the pulp division in the quarter and higher eliminations, +44(20)7552-5984 |

somewhat offset by higher-than-previous estimates for renewable energy on better georgina.fraser@gs.comGoldman Sachs International

margins. Thomas Ward

+44(20)7051-2527 |

Our Adj. EBITDA for the quarter now sits at SEK 1,292mn, 9% below Visible Alpha thomas.ward@gs.comGoldman Sachs International

Consensus Data of SEK 1,412mn given our lower estimates for the pulp and the wood Marcus von Scheele

divisions. Our FY26 adj. EBITDA estimate now stands at SEK 5,377mn, 5% below +44(20)7774-7676marcus.vonscheele@gs.com|

consensus mostly on our weaker numbers for the pulp division. Goldman Sachs International

For FY26, we have downgraded our numbers vs. our previous estimate by c.3%,

mostly on the weaker results we now expect for the pulp division in 2Q26, added to

lower Wood Product numbers - as we now forecast a more modest and gradual cost

decrease from falling wood prices in Sweden - as well as higher eliminations EBITDA.

For FY27, our EBITDA estimate remains broadly unchanged, as we lower our

expected margins for the Forestry division, which is offset by better margins in the

Containerboard business, given the stronger exit rate we now expect to the year as

the lower wood costs flow through the P&L.