Assessing a Hormuz reopening scenario; Prefer Tankers, Airlines and Shipbuilders

Research evidence excerpt

Assessing a Hormuz reopening scenario; Prefer Tankers, Airlines and Shipbuilders

Equity Research

16 June 2026 | 7:41AM HKT

CHINA TRANSPORTATION

Assessing a Hormuz reopening scenario; Prefer Tankers, Airlines and

Shipbuilders

Herbert Lu

+852-2978-0726 | herbert.lu@gs.com

Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

Simon Cheung, CFA

+852-2978-6102 |

simon.cheung@gs.com

On Jun 14th, Reuters news reported that the US and Iran have agreed on a framework Wing Huang

to end the war which started in late Feb. While the memorandum of understanding is +852-2978-0415Goldman Sachs (Asia)| ying.huang@gs.comL.L.C.

scheduled to be officially signed on Jun 19th in Switzerland, with a final deal to be

discussed in the 60 days following agreement by the two sides, of the reported

elements, two possible that could introduce material impacts to the China

Transportation sector include: 1) the reopening of Strait of Hormuz, and 2)

potential removal of the sanction on Iranian oil. While the situation remains fluid,

we conduct an illustrative scenario analysis, assuming our Commodities teams’

Benign scenario (see the team’s note here) and revisit our extreme (or bluesky)

scenario which assumes sanctions on Iranian oil are lifted (see Feb-26 report), to

assess the potential impact to our China Transportation names.

The analyses suggest:

1) Covered Oil Tankers and COSCO Energy (1138.HK / 600026.SS) could see the

greatest upside among our Transportation sector given: i) potential reversal of

over-supply of 9/11ppts amid closure of Hormuz for crude / product oil tanker

shipping; ii) further 5% oil restocking demand potential could make up for global

crude inventory draw-down (705 mn bbls) resulting from the Hormuz closure, in a

scenario where Gulf exports normalize by end-July. By combining a higher price