Homebuilder Heatmap – May 2026: SP Mid/High Inventory Data Shows Differing Trends Among Segments

Research evidence excerpt

Homebuilder Heatmap – May 2026: SP Mid/High Inventory Data Shows Differing Trends Among Segments

Equity Research

15 June 2026 | 3:53PM BRT

BRAZIL

Homebuilder Heatmap - May 2026: SP Mid/High Inventory Data Shows

Differing Trends Among Segments

Notable trends: Our analysis of April Sao Paulo inventory suggests that within Jorel Guilloty

+55(11)3372-3522 |

Cyrela’s focus, a point of concern could be on the upper end (R$5+ mm) though jorel.guilloty@gs.com

Goldman Sachs do Brasil CTVM S.A.

the segment right above the SBPE limit of R$2.25 mm could be slightly better

Igor Machadothan expected. Investors have expressed concern on inventory levels for Mid/High +55(11)3372-0227 |

income given a slower rates easing cycle, particularly for Cyrela; Secovi’s monthly igor.machado@gs.comGoldman Sachs do Brasil CTVM S.A.

results show a mixed picture with some segments better than others. For the R$2.25

mm to R$ 5mm segment, while inventory remained flattish, the segment saw the only

m/m sales over supply improvement (SoS) among price points analyzed going from

5.0% to 5.7%. In the R$600k to R$ 1 mm segment inventory declined 4% on a unit

basis to 6.1k units, though we would note that both SoS and months of inventory

worsened slightly m/m. Notably inventory increased 10% m/m by units for the over

R$5 mm segment with SoS declining from 4.6% to 3.4% and months of inventory

reaching 20.3, the highest since August 2025. We note that 70% of Cyrela’s 1Q26

owned inventory was in the City of Sao Paulo; 60% and 18% of total Cyrela inventory

is in high and mid income with average prices of R$2.05 mm and R$824k

respectively. While the data does not suggest that inventory risks have altogether

dissipated they do suggest that certain segments might be better than others. See