LATAM Today: June 15, 2026

Research evidence excerpt

LATAM Today: June 15, 2026

Goldman Sachs LATAM Today

deeper into positive territory); (7) the Copom conditional inflation forecasts are

expected to have deteriorated for end-2026 and end-2027; remaining above-target

across the entire relevant horizon for monetary policy; and (8) the FOMC is unlikely to

deliver rate cuts in the near-term.

In the policy statement we will be looking for the magnitude of the deterioration of the

Copom inflation forecasts over the foresting horizon, the balance of risks for inflation

(which may be updated to biased to the upside), and whether the forward guidance

turns more explicit and hawkish.

The central bank’s model-based conditional inflation forecasts are expected to have

benefited from a higher Selic path and lower oil prices over the forecasting period, and

negatively impacted by higher inflation expectations, more depreciated BRL/USD path,

and likely a more positive output gap. The Reference Scenario underlying assumptions

entail a BRL/USD PPP path probably starting at 5.10 (vs. 5.00 at the Apr Copom

meeting), the 2026/27/28 Selic path extracted from the Focus survey of market

participants (13.75%(+75bp)/12.00%(+100bp)/10.25%(+25bp), for end-2026/27/28),

and oil prices that follow approximately the futures curve for the next six-months and

that rise 2% per year thereafter. At this meeting the relevant horizon for monetary

policy remains 4Q27 (shifts to 1Q28 at the Aug meeting. We expect the conditional

inflation forecast under the analysts’ expected Selic path to increase by 40-50bp to

5.0-5.1% for 4Q26, and by 10bp to 3.6% for 4Q27.

Since the Apr 29 Copom meeting, the real activity indicators have been firm, with 1Q26

real GDP growth and April IP and services activity surprising to the upside, and the labor