European Aerospace: Navigating the reopening of Hormuz

Research evidence excerpt

European Aerospace: Navigating the reopening of Hormuz

15 June 2026

Global Aerospace & Defense

The US and Iran reached an interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, potentially Adrien Rabier

+44 20 7676 6820 removing the largest challenge for the aftermarket stocks: high oil prices impacting airlines.

adrien.rabier@bernsteinsg.com

Traffic and airlines’ profitability weakened in Q2’26. The close of the Strait pushed jet

Douglas S. Harned, Ph.D. fuel prices to extremes, while the conflict also impacted traffic in the Middle East. Overall,

+1 917 344 8430 traffic growth decelerated significantly from Q1’26 (+4%) to Q2’26 (-2%). Most airlines

douglas.harned@bernsteinsg.com

posted margin expansion in Q1’26, but margins are expected to deteriorate from Q2’26,

due to the high energy costs (~20% of revenue for a normal airline). Alex Irving, CFA

+44 20 7676 7044

alex.irving@bernsteinsg.com Low visibility but strong fundamentals for the aftermarket. Normalization could be

fast. Demand for the aftermarket was so strong before the war that traffic disruptions and

Cyriaque Blanchet high oil prices might have no impact on fundamentals, if the war ends. Airlines were burnt by

+44 20 7676 7342

cyriaque.blanchet@bernsteinsg.com the post-Covid shortage of planes. Airbus & Boeing could not produce enough planes to fill

demand, while traffic continued to grow, driving life extensions for older planes. Therefore,

Antoine Madre airlines and lessors have not delayed or canceled repairs, because they have wanted to

+33 1 58 98 74 52 optimize their fleet ahead of a potential recovery. All the aftermarket metrics are supportive,

antoine.madre@bernsteinsg.com

despite the challenging environment: retirement rates are still low, the number of unused