Global Macro Commentary | Global: June 15: Hormuz Risk Unwind

Research evidence excerpt

Global Macro Commentary | Global: June 15: Hormuz Risk Unwind

Update

June 15, 2026 10:04 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMGlobal Macro Commentary | Global Molly Nickolin

Strategist

June 15: Hormuz Risk Unwind Molly.Nickolin@morganstanley.comLingdi Xu +1 212 761-3592

Economist

Lingdi.Xu@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-2957

Reported US-Iran interim deal; oil falls; equities rally; AI-related Sofia Palacios

jumbo issuance caps Treasury rally; EM oil importers StrategistSofia.Palacios@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-0428

outperform; DXY at 99.69 (-0.1%); US 10y at 4.47 (-0.6bp). Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+

Gek Teng Khoo

A potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz lowered energy-risk premia, Strategist

supporting equities and front-end rates while the dollar weakened against most Gek.Teng.Khoo@morganstanley.com +852 3963-0303

peers. Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+

Hiromu Uezato

Developed Markets Strategist

Hiromu.Uezato@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8431

• US rates twist-steepened as the initial Treasury rally faded into heavy

Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited+

corporate supply and this week’s FOMC. The front end outperformed as

Nimish M Prabhune

lower oil prices reduced near-term inflation pressure and traders trimmed Strategist

rate-hike expectations (2y: -1.5bp; 30y: +1.2bp). The 10y yield closed nearly Nimish.Prabhune@morganstanley.com +91 22 6996-1862

unchanged at 4.47% (-0.6bp). An AI-related jumbo bond deal helped make Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

Monday one of the five busiest IG issuance days of the year, with weekly Maria Chiara Russo

estimates already surpassed ahead of the Fed meeting and holiday-shortened Maria.Chiara.Russo@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-3499

week.

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

Christina C Sigler