Asia Memory Solid fundamentals to outweigh KRW appreciation

Research evidence excerpt

8 September 2026

Asia Memory

Equities

Semiconductors &

Equipment

Solid fundamentals to outweigh KRW appreciation

Korea/US

◆ Further commodity DRAM price hike outweighs downside

risks from KRW appreciation

◆ More solid 4Q26 price outlook as well as HBM4 momentum

◆ We prefer SK Hynix; maintain Buy and KRW3.7m TP

Solid fundamentals outweigh FX headwinds: We remain positive on memory stocks,

as sustained commodity DRAM strength and further PC DRAM price increases in 2H26

should more than offset headwinds from KRW appreciation. In addition, a more robust

HBM price should provide further momentum for memory stocks. According to

DRAMeXchange, PC DRAM prices are now expected to rise 23–28% q-o-q for premium

customers in 3Q26 (previously 15-20%) due to 1) capacity allocation shifting towards

server DRAM and HBM at memory makers, 2) inventory restocking for peak season

demand and 3) less severe notebooks shipment weakness at -10.5% y-o-y (vs previously

-12.1%). We expect both server DRAM and NAND prices to rise 16% q-o-q, driven by

tight supply and tech migration, which is limiting output growth. We now expect a 3Q26

KRW appreciation rate of 6% q-o-q (previously 1% q-o-q). We expect this to reduce OP

by 6% for Hynix (to KRW74trn) and 5% for Samsung (to KRW106trn). Our OP estimates

for Hynix and Samsung are 5% below consensus. US memory makers will have a

minimal earnings impact.

Ricky Seo*

Head of Korea Research, Semiconductor and Display

The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation

Limited, Seoul Securities Branch

Han Kil Chang*

Research Analyst, Korea Technology

The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation

Limited, Seoul Securities Branch

* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is

not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations

More solid 4Q26e price and upcoming HBM momentum: As DRAM capacity will be

allocated more to HBM from robust demand at the Rubin platform and ASIC accelerators,

further supply tightness should lift DRAM prices by high single digits in 4Q26. On the

demand side, 1) stronger high-end smartphone sales following the new iPhone launch

…