Upstart Holdings, Inc.: 2Q26 EPS Recap – Solid Execution Balanced By Persistent Cyclicality Risk

Research evidence excerpt

M

Update

August 5, 2026 09:30 AM GMT

Upstart Holdings, Inc. | North America

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

James E Faucette

Equity Analyst

2Q26 EPS Recap – Solid

Execution Balanced By

Persistent Cyclicality Risk

Michael N Infante

Equity Analyst

Meryl R Thomas, CFA

Equity Analyst

Shefali Tamaskar

Research Associate

UPST offers mid-20s growth and improving earnings if UMI

stabilizes, but the current valuation already captures much of

that upside. With macro, origination and fair value risks balanced

against profit gains, we remain Equal-weight with a $35 price

target.

Key Takeaways

New 2026 estimates assume steady UMI near 150, with $1.4B revenue, $297M

adjusted EBITDA and $0.57 GAAP EPS.

2027 forecasts call for roughly 25% revenue growth and higher profitability,

reaching $405M adjusted EBITDA and $1.49 GAAP EPS.

Trimming estimates for weaker UMI and potential fair value pressure, but leaving

$35 price target unchanged.

Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST.O, UPST US)

Payments and Processing | United States of America

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Aug 4, 2026)

Mkt cap, curr (mm)

52-Week Range

Fiscal Year Ending

1.77

23.8

1.61

greater cyclicality and lower expected margins.

Quarter

2025

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

0.30

0.41

0.55

0.46

EPS) contemplate a generally steady environment, with no incremental

2.32

2.31

14.0

2.32

3.11

3.19

9.8

3.43

4.14

4.25

7.3

4.91

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

§ = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

Quarterly EPS ($)

about right. Our new '26 estimates ($1.4B in rev, $297M Adj EBITDA, $0.57 GAAP

Equal-weight

Attractive

$35.00

$30.32

$3,780

$85.31-23.97

12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

EPS ($)**

Prior EPS ($)**

P/E

EPS ($)§

Div yld (%)

UPST looks fairly valued and should trade in line to slightly below AFRM given

Assuming steady environment and ramping profitability, but valuation looks

2026e 2026e

Prior Current

0.62

0.67

0.36a

0.58a

0.63

0.72

2027e 2027e

Prior Current

0.70

0.81

0.40

0.66

0.79

0.44

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates, a = Actual Company reported data

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