ICL Group Ltd: 2Q beat. $350m saves programme. FY26 confirmed

Research evidence excerpt

M

Update

August 5, 2026 07:08 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

ICL Group Ltd | North America

Lisa H De Neve

Equity Analyst

2Q beat. $350m saves

programme. FY26 confirmed

Selina Wang

Research Associate

ICL Group Ltd (ICL.N, ICL UN)

Chemicals | United States of America

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

Bottom line. We expect shares to outperform today on the back of the (i) 2Q Sales/

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Aug 4, 2026)

52-Week Range

Mkt cap, curr (mn)

Net debt (12/26e) (mn)*

EV, curr (mn)*

Adj EBITDA/Adj EPS beat, and (ii) a material $350m cost-saving programme

* = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP

Unchanged

Meaningful upside

Largely unchanged

Impact to our thesis

Financial results versus consensus

Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

Equal-weight

In-Line

US$5.60

US$5.15

US$6.97-4.77

US$6,655

US$2,265

US$9,175

equivalent to ~24% of 2025 base-line Adj EBITDA, despite (iii) limited scope for

material FY26 Adj EBITDA upgrades to consensus given recent normalisation in

(China) bromine prices.

FY26 outlook reiterated. ICL continues to guide to FY26 adj EBITDA of $1.5-1.7bn

(cons. $1,647m) incl. potash sales volumes of 4.5m-4.7mT (cons. 4.62mT). We

anticipate limited net changes to consensus FY26 Adj EBITDA (with potential for

LSD% upgrades to the high end of the range) as bromine prices have normalised

since May 2026 and sulphur input costs remain elevated (although show signs of

modest deflation in July 2027), which implies Industrial Product margin may also

mean-revert from 3Q26 and especially 4Q26, combined with muted construction

demand (partially offset by strong electronics demand).

New reporting structure from 2027. ICL will move to 4 new divisional segments: (i)

Nutrition Solutions, (ii) Industrial Products (which appears unchanged) and (iii)

Growing Solutions (which appears unchanged), and (iv) a fourth segment, Essential

Minerals, which will include potash and phosphate fertilisers. At first glance, the

main change in reporting appears to be the split of Phosphate Solutions, with the

commodity fertiliser sub-segment to be merged with Potash in Essential Minerals.

…