Glencore PLC: 1H26 Results - Returns In-Line, ASX Secondary Listing, FY26 Cash Costs Lifted

Research evidence excerpt

M

Update

August 5, 2026 06:51 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

Glencore PLC | Europe

Alain Gabriel, CFA

Equity Analyst

1H26 Results - Returns In-Line,

ASX Secondary Listing, FY26

Cash Costs Lifted

RMB Morgan Stanley Proprietary Limited+

Brian Morgan

Equity Analyst

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

Ferdinand Huber

Research Associate

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

Adahna Ekoku

Unchanged

Modest upside

Modest revision lower

Equity Analyst

Impact to our thesis

Financial results versus consensus

Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

Key Takeaways

Glencore PLC (GLEN.L, GLEN LN)

ADRGLNJ.J

Metals & Mining | United Kingdom

with our forecast.

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Aug 4, 2026)

52-Week Range

Mkt cap, curr (mn)

Net debt (12/26e) (mn)*

EV, curr (mn)*

Underlying EBITDA 2-3% ahead of expectations, FY26 cost guidance updated

* = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP

ASX secondary listing announced to boost liquidity, tap into domestic Australian

investor base.

Total capital returns of US$1.5bn, including US$0.5bn buyback broadly in-line

Overweight

In-Line

590p

551p

707-275p

US$85,748

US$35,257

US$143,368

including a sizeable uplift in Copper.

Capital returns beat; net debt below expectations. Company-defined 1H26 net

debt was US$10.2bn, vs MSe of US$10.5bn. The variance versus our estimate was

primarily driven by better industrial NWC movements, lower cash taxes, and higher

dividends from JVs and associates partly offset by higher interest payments and

capital expenditures. More importantly, the company declared a US$1.5bn top-up

return today (a US$8.5c/sh special cash distribution of ~US$1.0bn plus a new US

$500mn buyback to February 2027), in the context of a proforma net debt that

includes ~US$1.5bn for the partial monetisation of the Bunge stake.

ASX secondary listing is opportunity to boost liquidity, shareholder base, and

potential inclusion in the ASX200 index. This format would not allow Glencore to

utilise any franking credits, in our understanding.

FY26 unit costs reset higher, mostly above MSe; volume guidance unchanged.

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