Ahold Delhaize NV: 2Q26: Beat on the qtr, but we think FY estimates still need to come down

Research evidence excerpt

M

Update

August 5, 2026 06:33 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

Ahold Delhaize NV | Europe

Izabel Dobreva

Equity Analyst

2Q26: Beat on the qtr, but we

think FY estimates still need to

come down

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

Unchanged

Modest upside

Modest revision lower

Impact to our thesis

Financial results versus consensus

Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS

Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV (AD.AS, AD NA)

Retailing - Food | Netherlands

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Aug 3, 2026)

52-Week Range

Mkt cap, curr (mn)

Net debt (12/26e) (mn)*

EV, curr (mn)*

Underweight

In-Line

€32.50

€34.67

€42.54-32.13

€30,658

€13,254

€45,530

* = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

Ahold Delhaize reported 2Q26 results; overall underlying EBIT came in 2% ahead

of Company Cssus with the key US division in line with Co Cssus and -2.0%/3.5% below VA Cssus / MSe. While delivery on the quarter was ahead of Co.

Cssus estimates, we note that quarterly Cssus figures have been revised down

meaningfully into the print. For example VA Cssus for 2Q op. income in the US

has come down -3% over 3m, whereas FY has been unchanged. Similarly, while

US LfL came in at 0.8% for 2Q, company Cssus is for 2026e US LfL of 1.9%,

implying a meaningful acceleration into 2H on both comps and margin - 2Q US

margin was down -16bp y/y, while Cssus figures imply 2H margin flat y/y ex oneoffs. Annualizing financing costs similarly implies ~1% cut to FY Cssus PBT (vs in

line delivery for the qtr). Overall we'd expect 2026 Cssus estimates to be revised

down ~2% post print and we continue to see downside to US profits

expectations for 2027/28e - we don’t think this quarter will settle the debate on

US price investments either way.

Guidance: Reiterated 2026 outlook of underlying op. profit margin of around 4%,

mid-to-high SD EPS growth at constant FX, FCF of at least €2.3bn, gross capex of ~

€2.7bn

US: Underlying EBIT in line (-0.5%) vs Company Cssus

• LfL sales came in at 0.8%, in line compared to Cssus at 0.8% and slowing 70bp q/q. Within that there were impacts from calendar/weather/pharmacy

…