Sasol Ltd: FY26 trading statement in-line, ongoing impairments a concern

Research evidence excerpt

M

Update

August 5, 2026 06:38 AM GMT

RMB Morgan Stanley Proprietary Limited+

Sasol Ltd | Europe

Christopher Nicholson

Equity Strategist and Analyst

FY26 trading statement in-line,

ongoing impairments a concern

Brian Morgan

Equity Analyst

Sasol Ltd (SOLJ.J, SOL SJ)

Energy | South Africa

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

Unchanged

In-line

Largely unchanged

Impact to our thesis

Financial results versus consensus

Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

Key earnings ranges broadly in-line with consensus. Sasol are guiding:

• FY26 HEPS ­of between R36 - 40/share (+2 to +14% y/y) is marginally below

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Aug 4, 2026)

52-Week Range

Mkt cap, curr (mn)

Net debt (06/26e) (mn)*

EV, curr (mn)*

Equal-weight

In-Line

ZAc 16,000

ZAc 18,331

ZAc 24,200- 8,463

ZAR 117,685

ZAR 52,246

ZAR 185,131

* = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP

Bloomberg consensus/ Visible Alpha consensus of R39.53/ 39.50/ share at

the mid point but marginally ahead of MSe of R36.79/share at the mid point.

As expected earnings were positively impacted by sales volumes, higher oil

and refining margins; partially offset by a stronger ZAR/USD. The release

highlights a R1.1bn unrealised loss on translation/ derivatives which would

have likely had a material negative impact on 2H26 earnings (Sasol reported

a R2.9bn unrealised gain in the 1H26). However, the release does not refer to

realised translation/ derivative items - we forecast a material gain in the

2H26 (~R900m) on the FX hedges which would have positively impacted

both earnings and EBITDA, at least partially offsetting some of the

unrealised losses.

• Adjusted EBITDA of between R58 - 62bn (+12 to +20% y/y) is ahead of

Bloomberg consensus/ Visible Alpha consensus/ MSe of R58.07/ 57.25/

57.82bn at the mid point. However, we would caution that the market is now

likely to place less emphasis on this metric given some of the historical

adjustments applied (eg to changes in rehab provisions in the 1H26).

R9bn of further impairments against a stronger macro backdrop/ operational

improvements remains a concern. Sasol are guiding to an impairment of R16.8bn

…