Australia Materials: Financials Preview: August 2026

Research evidence excerpt

M

Idea

August 5, 2026 06:30 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley Australia Limited+

Australia Materials | Asia Pacific

Rahul Anand, CFA

Equity Analyst

Financials Preview: August 2026

Shannon J Sinha

Equity Analyst

We compare our expectations and the market's for

1HCY26/2HFY26 financials and highlight key variances.

Michael A Stancliff

Research Associate

Key Takeaways

Potential dividend upside: MSe BHP 2H DPS US94.1cps (70% payout) +13% vs

cons US83.3cps (65%), SFR US13.5cps +8% (+buyback); MIN A50cps/IGO A4cps

vs cons nil.

Australia Materials

Asia Pacific

Industry View

Other possible dividend outcomes: WHC +5%; S32 -9%; PLS nil vs. consensus

A3cps as we expect cash to be retained for P2000 expansion spending.

Attractive

What’s Changed

Likely positive earnings surprises: EBITDA; LYC/BHP/FMG/MIN +6%/+5%/+5%/

+4%; EPS led by MIN +11%, ILU loss ~9% narrower vs VA cons and PLS +6%.

Likely negative earnings surprises: EBITDA; BOE/S32 -10%/-4%; EPS; PDN/BOE/

WHC/S32 at -24%/-12%/-9%/-8%.

FY27 guidance is expected for BHP, S32, MIN, WHC, SFR and BOE.

BHP: Costs and capex guidance for FY27 to be provided; we await FY26 cost

performance vs. guide.

S32: Cost guidance for FY27 expected at the result, with production guidance

BHP Group Ltd (BHP.AX)

Price Target

From

A$67.50

To

A$67.00

BHP Group Ltd (BHGJ.J)

Price Target

From

ZAc 76,280

To

ZAc 75,715

BHP Group Ltd (BHPB.L)

Price Target

From

3,505p

To

3,479p

Deterra Royalties Ltd (DRR.AX) From

Price Target

A$3.95

To

A$3.80

Whitehaven Coal Ltd

(WHC.AX)

Price Target

From

A$8.40

To

A$8.45

South32 Ltd (S32.AX)

Price Target

From

A$4.75

To

A$4.80

South32 Ltd (S32J.J)

Price Target

From

ZAc 5,404

To

ZAc 5,461

Paladin Energy Ltd (PDN.AX)

Price Target

From

A$11.95

To

A$10.55

already provided.

MIN: FY27 guidance to be provided at the result. Focus on Onslow shipments and

unit costs across iron ore and lithium assets.

WHC: Guidance for FY27 to be provided, including production, unit costs and capex.

SFR: FY27 unit costs and capex guidance to be provided. Focus on capital

management with the company now in a net cash position.

BOE: Guidance for FY27 expected, along with the revised Feasibility Study for

Honeymoon.

Exhibit 1:

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