Cruise Lines: Channel Checks: Smooth Sailing Up Top, Choppier Below Deck

Research evidence excerpt

M

Foundation

August 5, 2026 06:24 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

Cruise Lines | North America

Jamie Rollo

Equity Analyst

Channel Checks: Smooth Sailing

Up Top, Choppier Below Deck

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

Stephen W Grambling

Equity Analyst

Nicholas P DeValeria

Equity Analyst

What’s Changed

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd (NCLH.N)

From

To

Price Target

$22.00

$19.00

Our latest checks suggest luxury and long-dated demand remain

buoyant, but contemporary cruise ship customers are booking

later and relying more heavily on promotions. Retain relative

preference for CCL, cutting NCLH PT from $22 to $19.

M

Our travel agent channel checks (see here) have weakened a little since our last

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

James Ruddell

Research Associate

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

Kun Chen

Equity Strategist

Cruise Lines

North America

Industry View

In-Line

report:

1. Luxury remains strong: High-end demand continues to be the standout

performer, with one luxury travel agency we speak to running +39% YoY, up from

+37% in June. Smaller / luxury ships and river cruises continue to lead the market in

growth and yield.

2. The mainstream message is mixed: One agent reports overall bookings +5% YoY

and another saw its strongest bookings across CCL brands in three years. However,

another reports July bookings down ~20% both YoY and versus June. Average

transaction values appear to be up, but the majority of this increase is coming from

higher airline and hotel prices rather than cruise ticket.

3. Promotions are becoming more diverse: Luxury lines are bundling by included

business-class travel, hotel stays and onboard credits whilst protecting base fares.

On the other hand, contemporary lines seem to be using more flash sales, lower

deposits and added amenities and agency incentives to fill capacity. CCL and NCLH

are cited as being particularly promotional, whilst VIK is reported to be running

"exceptional deals" for Q4 bookings.

4. Geographic trends fragmented: Alaska, Northern Europe, Iceland and the Fjords

appear to be enjoying strong pricing and demand growth, consistent with the

'coolcation' trend.…